Scenario Analysis Simulation

• Review a brief for an initiative - such as launching a product, entering a new market, or investing in a new facility

• Identify key drivers of uncertainty and define possible scenarios

• Build or adjust financial models to capture case-specific outcomes

• Compare and interpret outputs under each scenario (base, best, worst)

• Make and justify a recommendation to senior leadership or a board

• Respond to new inputs or market shifts, refining the analysis dynamically

• Collaborate with peers or functionally across teams, depending on the format

By the end of the simulation, participants will be more confident in:

• Applying structured thinking to ambiguous business problems

• Translating assumptions into financial outcomes

• Using scenario and sensitivity analysis effectively

• Communicating recommendations grounded in data

• Understanding the risks and returns of each strategic path

• Making decisions in environments of incomplete information

• Balancing optimism and caution in forward-looking planning

• Collaborating on decisions that cross finance, operations, and strategy

• Adapting decisions in real time as new variables emerge

This simulation helps build confidence in managing complexity - a key skill for anyone involved in planning, finance, or decision support.

1. Receive a Business Case or Brief Participants are given a high-stakes business initiative along with initial data and assumptions.

2. Identify Key Drivers and Build Scenarios They define the top variables that affect outcomes and model three or more scenarios - best-case, base-case, and worst-case.

3. Run Financial Models Using the simulation interface and spreadsheets, participants test different combinations of assumptions and explore the results.

4. Make a Recommendation Based on results, participants present a decision or strategy to senior stakeholders - explaining logic, risks, and expected returns.

5. Respond to New Information Additional rounds may introduce new data or surprise developments, requiring scenario revision or re-analysis.

6. Reflect and Debrief Teams or individuals review what drove success or failure, how assumptions changed outcomes, and how better modeling improves strategic thinking.

• Is this suitable for students with no modeling experience? Yes. The simulation includes built-in support and can be tailored for beginner to advanced learners.

• What tools are used? The simulation uses a built-in platform interface but also integrate Excel models where relevant.

• Can it be customised for specific industries? Yes. Scenarios can reflect retail, tech, energy, banking, or any sector.

• Does it require math-heavy analysis? Not necessarily. It focuses on logic, assumptions, and strategic decision-making - numbers support the thinking.

• Can it be used in executive programs? Yes. It's well-suited for corporate leaders making capital allocation, growth, or restructuring decisions.

• Is it individual or team-based? Both are possible. Teams can collaborate to reflect cross-functional dynamics.

• Can it include external shocks like regulation or competitor moves? Yes. Additional rounds can introduce new variables that stress-test plans.

• How long does it run? Typically 2 - 3 hours for one full cycle, or it can be extended into multi-session workshops.

• Is visual presentation part of the task? Yes. Participants must often present scenario outcomes using charts or summaries to stakeholders.

• How is performance measured? By clarity of assumptions, logic of recommendations, realism of analysis, and communication effectiveness.

• Scenario structuring and assumption clarity

• Depth and accuracy of financial impact modeling

• Risk-awareness and contingency planning

• Strategic quality of decision-making

• Quality of presentation and stakeholder alignment

• Peer and instructor review in multi-team formats

• Adaptability as new inputs emerge during the simulation

This flexibility allows integration into graded academic modules or corporate workshops with formal review cycles.